Demographic Transition And Populism

How Concern Over Immigration Feeds The Culture War

Photo by Metin Ozer on Unsplash

Here is some more off the cuff writing regarding my forthcoming 4000 word plus essay (which might blow up to closer to 10,000 words…we’ll see) that I’ve been working on for the last few weeks. Some interesting conversations, and expected pushback on Twitter, regarding today’s topic has inspired these thoughts. For the next little while, the work of Canadian political scientist Eric Kaufmann, will be dominating my thinking. There are some others too that are covered in the big essay, so stay tuned for that. For now, buckle in gentle reader, we will get through this together.

Let’s begin with a quote,

“Getting from where we are now, where most Westerners share the racial and religious features of their ethnic archetype, to the situation in a century or two, when most will be what we now term ‘mixed-race’, is vital to understanding our present conditions.” - Eric Kaufmann

A concept that fascinates me to no end is transition. Specifically, a world in transition. None of us will be alive to see the results in a century or two, but we do get to live through the crunchiest part of transition during the present. Lucky us! The one thing my study of the culture wars has made abundantly clear to me, is these are vastly consequential times. Times marked by enormous transition.

Another way to describe transition is to say “turn” or “turning point.” That is why I call this Substack The Turn. I like to explore both the transitions that led up to our present moment, and those we are in the midst of presently. I believe that the convulsive processes sparked by multiple layers of uneven global development and transition, at least in the West, are very much tied to our postmodern identity politics driven culture war.

I’ve written previously about transitional processes, in Postcolonial Theory and Indigenous Traditional Knowledge: Linking Postmodern Identity Politics with Transitional Shifts in Canada’s Political Economy and Media Landscape , I digress into an extended discussion of the transition from Fordist regimes of accumulation, into the postmodern condition of post-Fordist flexible accumulation. This idea is explored again in An Environment Programmed For Irrationality - by James Pew (substack.com) 

However, I think the mother-of-all-transitional processes, the grandest of all shakeups, is in the uneven demographic transitions being experienced all over the globe. How this affects Western democracies, and intersects with the anti-majority identity politics movement of the adversarial far left (the woke), is of particular interest to me.

One indicator of this demographic transition is the change in the pattern of global immigration from what it looked like in the period before 1980. The turn in the West is from a racially homogenous world of white majorities to one of racially hybrid majorities¹.

“The demographic transition is important for politics because it unfolds at different times between world regions, between nations and even between ethnic groups within nations…in other words, it is the unevenness of the demographic transition between groups which carries political implications” - Eric Kaufmann

Here is some interesting data related to shifting global demography².

• Global population growth:

1804 - 1 Billion

1960 - 3 Billion

Now - 7.5 Billion

• 80% of the world’s 156 major countries have an ethnic majority (half of which have a 70% majority).

• 97% of global population growth occurs south of the equator. While the total fertility rate of Western countries is below replacement (2.1), 65 southern countries are in the early stages of demographic transition and have average children per woman ranging from 3.5 to 7 (depending on which country).

• Europe, North Africa and East Asia contain states which often have ethnic majorities of 90% or more. This can be explained by environmental factors - geoclimatic variation is low (topography and soil type). “This reduced cultural diversity by facilitating historic assimilation.”

• In 1950 there were 3.5 Europeans and North Americans for every African. By 2050 there will be 2 Africans for every Westerner. And then 4 to 1 by 2100.

• Of all the people immigrating to European countries by 2015 - 40% come from within Europe, while 60% come from without. This dynamic occurs even more in North America.

• The number of people migrating from the global south to Europe and North America has more than doubled between 1990 and 2015 as 54 million immigrated into Western countries.

• Together with New Zealand, North America is projected to be a majority-minority by 2050 (the same will happen a little later to Western Europe and Australia). 

• Over 90% of wars since 1945 have taken place within countries (instead of between countries). Most have been ethnic wars.

“In our more peaceful, post-ideological, demographically turbulent world, migration-led ethnic change is altering the basis of politics  from class to ethnicity” - Eric Kaufmann

What the above data, and the explanatory Kaufmann quotes found in this article, illustrate to me, is that demographic transition, or more specifically, concern over it are a huge factor in what manifests as culture war tensions. According to Kaufmann, it is not possible to analyze survey data on Western individuals and conclude anything other than - concern over immigration is the number one factor in the rise of populism in the West. When you consider the changes in demographics the world is going through, should this really come as a surprise?

Left-wing types are cosmopolitan and xenophilic. It is a beautiful way to be. It is a disposition that is entirely consistent with the Western tradition of curiosity and exploration. But not all share the enthusiasm for xenophilia, and others still, have awareness and concern over violent situations across the globe resulting from misguided projects of diversity.

“Can you cite one speck of hard evidence of the benefits of "diversity" that we have heard gushed about for years? Evidence of its harm can be seen — written in blood — from Iraq to India, from Serbia to Sudan, from Fiji to the Philippines. It is scary how easily so many people can be brainwashed by sheer repetition of a word.” Thomas Sowell

There is a reluctance on the part of North Americans to discuss immigration. Anyone who suggests tempering immigration in any way is accused of being xenophobic. This is antithetical to our founding democratic liberal norms. Immigration, always and forever, will be a major issue of concern for any nation. The woke shutdown of democratic discourse relating to immigration just serves to worsen the concerns right-wing traditionalists feel under a situation where open borders and unregulated immigration is advocated for openly, but criticism of it is silenced and seemingly non-existent.

Up until recently the anti-majority adversarial culture of the far Left manifested in what often seemed like harmless trivialities that were easy to shake off. When black comedians from the 1970s and 1980s made a mockery out of white people through endless routines caricaturing stereotypical white traits, we all laughed along. No one cared. No one cares, until their majority status is threatened that is.

The shift in Western demographics and the concerns over immigration are serious. One of the results that we can already see, is a lack of willingness of those in the majority populations to laugh along and accept their denigration with good humor. As the demographics shift, and white majorities lose their numbers (and cease to be majorities), the will for white people to assert their identity will increase. This is very much inevitable, and has led me to believe that notions of colorblindness, which I agree with in spirit, should not be taken to such extremes that we deny the existence of race, ethnicity or any aspect of the attached ethno-culture. Deny a people their fundamental essence, identity or humanity, and see what happens!

When we take colorblindness to this extreme, and assert that race doesn’t matter, that it is not a legitimate aspect of one's ethnicity and humanity, this is wishful thinking which naively ignores the meaning and importance some people place on identity and the related origin stories of one’s territorial homeland. In this way, it is my contention that colorblindness, when taken too literally, is a luxury belief that will hurt the situation, not help it, by acting in a way that is at odds with the natural inclinations of humanity.

In cases of regions with low geoclimatic variation, which historically have more assimilation and less diversity, there is a model for what many Western countries should consider. In these examples, acculturation of migrants is a consequence of environmental pressures. These same pressures do not exist in Canada, even though many immigrants come here wishing to integrate into Canadian identity voluntarily. The anti-majority project of diversity, teaches both citizens and newcomers that the nation, its history and its people are inherently flawed. This must stop. This is not why people immigrate to Canada. Many come with good intentions to participate in the traditions of enlightenment rationality revered all over the world. Not only will Woke diversity czars not admit that our enlightenment rationality is pretty darn good, they lie and say it is evil and irredeemable and must be erased. Aaarrrrggghh!!!

The Woke don’t want immigrants and their children participating in anything linked to Canadian heritage, God no, that would be assimilation, which they think is racist. They want diversity, they want immigrants to bring their culture and ignore the one that exists in Canada, and is practiced by a majority. But here is what they don’t get, many immigrants don’t want that diversity, they love and desire Canadian culture, and so voluntarily assimilate themselves and their families into it. That is a big part of what counters diversity, and prevents violent uprisings between competing ethnic minorities, like what happens in so many other “diversities” in other regions around the world. This self-directed assimilation by many enthusiastic immigrants, inspired by an authentic Canadian awesomeness revered by billions around the globe, provides hope for the future of peace and stability in the area now known as Canada.

Let’s end with a final quote that I think ties everything together and explains in a nutshell who both sides of the culture war are, and what their beefs are about,

“On one side is a conservative coalition of whites who are attached to their heritage joined by minorities who value the white tradition; on the other side a progressive alliance of minorities who identify with their ethnic identity combined with whites who are agnostic or hostile towards theirs. Among whites, ethno-demographic changes polarizes people between ‘tribal’ ethnics who value their particularity and ‘religious’ post-ethnics who prioritize universalist creeds such as John McWhorter’s ‘religion of anti-racism’.” - Eric Kaufmann, Whiteshift

For more on this topic,

Replacing Whiteness With Diversity - by James Pew (substack.com)

Explaining "Replacing Whiteness With Diversity" (substack.com)

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1. Eric Kaufmann, whiteshift

2. All bullets from Eric Kaufmann’s Whiteshift